From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers
by John L. Casti
"Mood Matters" makes the radical assertion that all social events ranging from fashions in music and art to the rise and fall of civilizations are biased by the attitudes a society holds toward the future. When the "social mood" is positive and people look forward to the future, events of an entirely different character tend to occur than when society is pessimistic...
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How to see and understand more of the future with the Eltville Model
by Dr. Pero Mićić
The first model for analyzing and managing the future systematically and effectively with a process model that is linked to a semantic model of results. The Five Futures Glasses is based on experience from more than 1000 workshops and projects.
‘The Eltville Model, with the five futures glasses, is the most comprehensive and integrated model of strategy development using the perspectives and tools of strategic foresight that I know.’ - Dr. Peter Bishop, Associate Professor of Strategic Foresight, University of Houston
‘If leaders and managers are to learn anything from the years of crisis it is that they must develop future thinking skills. Based on Pero Mićić's rigorous research and many years of experience, The Five Futures Glasses provides essential, exciting and effective ideas, techniques and tools for learning about the future in the present. This book is much needed!’ - Jeff Gold, Professor of Organization Learning, Leeds Business School.
Also available in German and Korean.
Available at Amazon:
Paper-Version
Kindle-Version
a PhD thesis by Elina Hiltunen
Aalto University, School of Economics,
Faculty of organizations and leadership (Finland).
The thesis goes through various definitions for weak signals, and introduces a concept the future sign to overcome the fuzziness of the definitions. Besides of that the thesis also introduces a tool, Futures Windows, for disseminating visual weak signals in organizations. The research also find out from what sources futurists find weak signals.
Download the thesis here (7MB).
„WIR!“ sind der soziale Kitt
Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen veröffentlicht Grundlagenstudie zum Wertewandel in Deutschland
Das Zeitalter der Ichlinge geht zu Ende. In Krisenzeiten ist kein Platz für Egoisten mehr. Die neueste BAT Wertestudie des Zukunftsforschers Horst W. Opaschowski hat eine eindeutige Botschaft: Die Deutschen wenden sich ab von Maßlosigkeit und Missmanagement.
Read more here.
Rapatrier la dette des Etats : un moyen de calmer le jeu ?
by Pierre-Alain Schieb et Rodolphe A. Müller
The
article published in June 2010 by the French newspaper Le Monde and
written by R.A Müller and P-A Schieb covers the process and benefits
of a partial repatriation of public debt which is now in foreign hands.
If done in a coordinated and careful way (multilateral process) this
could be a building block to restore confidence. It would also imply a
national dialogue with the private sector the financial community and
population in order to discuss potential implications.
Read more here.
Le Monde
(Disclaimer: “Views expressed in the Le Monde article and more recent
comments do not necessary reflect the views of the OECD and of the OECD
member countries”.)
The shape of jobs to come
Possible New Careers Emerging from Advances in Science and Technology (2010 – 2030)
by Rohit Talwar and Tim Hancock, Fast Future Research
Fast Future’s latest foresight study on The shape of jobs to come was published. The study explores potential science and technology developments to 2030. The report can be downloaded from Fast Future’s website. The research examined the kinds of jobs that could emerge or become more prominent as a result of science and technology breakthroughs over the next 20 years. The study was commissioned by the UK Government's Science: [So what? So everything] campaign to present a timeline of possible developments to 2030 and beyond and profiles a range of these jobs of the future.
Download the study here.
Trends, Herausforderungen und Chancen für die Wirtschaft von morgen
Erobern Elektroautos den Massenmarkt? Gelingt eine Reform der Gesundheitssysteme? Wie informiert sich die Gesellschaft der Zukunft? Klaus Burmeister und Holger Glockner, Zukunftsforscher der Kölner Strategieberatung Z_punkt, haben zum Auftakt des Jahres 2010 ein umfassendes Handbuch zu den zentralen Herausforderungen der nächsten Dekade veröffentlicht. Das „Handbuch Zukunft 2010“ beschreibt die Auswirkungen kommender Entwicklungen auf das unternehmerische Handeln und zeigt zentrale Lösungsansätze auf.
Download the media release here.
Vorbereitungen in der Gegenwart
by Dr. Stefan Bergheim, Fortschrittszentrum
Government foresight activities can contribute to better policy decisions today and a better situation of society in the future. This report (in German only) by the newly founded “Center for Societal Progress” in Frankfurt summarizes methods of futures research, presents government foresight institutions in seven countries and draws conclusions for Germany.
Download the study here.
by Dr BRUCE LLOYD, Emeritus Professor of Strategic Management London South Bank University
The essay was presented to the 2009 Annual conference of the World Future Society and published in their conference volume Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World.
Bruce spent over 20 years in industry and finance before joining the academic world in 1990 to help establish the Management Centre at what is now London South Bank University. He has written extensively on a wide range of strategy/futures related issues, over the past 30 years and the focus of his recent work has been on role of Wisdom in Strategy, Knowledge Management and Leadership.
Download the essay here.
by Z_Punkt
In business, knowledge is leverage. The “Digital Native” way of work and play is making inroads into the business community. A growing number of freelancing project workers is organised in co-working spaces and temporary teams. With this in mind, we have to take a critical look at the traditional office. Commissioned by Kölnmesse, Z_punk’s researchers surveyed some 2,200 visitors of Orgatec, the leading trade fair for office and office facilities, and asked office users and decision-makers what they expect from tomorrow’s world of work and what environments they really would like to work in.
The survey “Ultima Office. Office Visions” sums up the results of this project and highlight crucial innovation areas for the office industry. This project, created as the largest collective think tank on “the office of the future”, is a primary example for entering an open dialogue on the future with users and stakeholders in order to identify, at an early stage, innovation impetus for industries and businesses.
Available in English and German. Mailorder here.
http://www.z-punkt.de/studien.html
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Foresight-Toolbox
What will tomorrow’s customers want? How will your core business change in the future? What issues and trends lie in store for your business? Promoted by the German Federal Ministry of Research and Technology, Z_punkt has developed an online toolbox, available free of charge, which supports SMEs in answering these questions. At the heart of the platform www.zukunft-im-mittelstand.de are methodical building blocks for Corporate Foresight, researching the future in business environments.
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Wie die Europäer ihre Zukunft sehen
Editors: Ulrich Reinhardt, Georges T. Roos
Welche Erwartungen haben die Europäer an ihre Zukunft? Die Studie 'Future Expectations for Europe' ist jetzt auf deutsch erschienen.
Now available in german!
ISBN: 978-3-89678-802-3
Pan-European Futures Study with Comments by 19 Futurists
Editors: Ulrich Reinhardt, Georges T. Roos
How will Europe look like in 2030?
More than 11.000 Europeans from nine countries were asked about their views of the future in eight different fields:
the future of work, of integration, of family, of education, of consumption, of security, of the environment and the future of the relationship between poor and rich.
The results prove that people have many fears – e.g. old age, poverty, rising costs of everyday goods or increasing crime. But the representative study also shows that the future can be bright: less working hours, most trash will be recycled and more women in leading positions. Together with 19 future scientists the BAT Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen and the European Futurists Conference Lucerne are proud to present the results and give first hand information on how the Europeans see the future.
Mailorder here.
Eine kleine Geschichte der Zukunft - von Delphi bis heute
by Oona Horx-Strathern
Available in English and German.
Mailorder here
Die Evolution der Technologie
by Matthias Horx
The newest state-of-the-art thinking in technological prediction. What if technologies don't come "automatically" into your life, but follow the laws of evolution? This is the first book that uses evolutionary theory to understand technological progress.
Available in German.
Mailorder here
GLOBALIZATION OF CONCERN
by Aidan G. Msafiri
It critically focuses on the current socio-ethical, human, cultural issues and challenges facing the african continent and Tanzania in particular. It specifically dwells on economic globalization and justice in Africa, the role of the church on HIV/AIDS pandemic and the post ARV'S crises, consumerism, women and the unfair disrtibution of of resources in Tanzania, and finally, the anatomy of witchcraft and its impact on life in Tanzania.
ISBN : 978-9976-60-481-5
Mailorder here
Future Matters
Action, Knowledge, Ethics
by Barbara Adam and Chris Groves
Future Matters concerns contemporary approaches to the future – how the future is known, created and minded. In a social world whose pace continues to accelerate the future becomes an increasingly difficult terrain. While the focus of social life is
narrowing down to the present, the futures we create on a daily basis cast ever longer shadows.
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Making Sense of Social Media
Interviews and Narrativesby Sirkka Heinonen and Minna Halonen
This report presents interviews of nine experts in the field of social media and/or foresight. The interviews were conducted in three international conferences on social media and foresight held in Europe during the period between November 2006 – April 2007. The first interviews were made during the 2nd European Futurists Conference in Lucerne. The aim of the report is to open up the concept and phenomenon of social media by inviting personal views and interpretations through various expert interviews in the field.
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Die fünf Zukunftsbrillen - Chancen früher erkennen durch praktisches Zukunftsmanagement
by Dr. Pero Micic
Der Leser erhält ein grundlegendes Verständnis für den methodisch fundierten Blick in die Zukunft. Anhand des „Eltviller Modells der fünf Zukunftsbrillen“ lassen sich die für jede Unternehmensstrategie so wichtigen Fragen beantworten wie: Welche Geschäftsfelder sollen wir erschließen, welche verlassen? Was wollen unsere Kunden zukünftig? Wer sind unsere zukünftigen Kunden? Wie entwickelt sich der Wettbewerb und Markt? Welche Handlungsoptionen haben wir? Es bietet damit ein solides Fundament für eine tragfähige unternehmerische Zukunftsstrategie, mit der Sie Ihre Wettbewerbsposition verbessern können, indem Sie weiter und breiter schauen als die Konkurrenz.
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Zukunft machen - Wie Sie von Trends zu Business-Innovationen kommen. Ein Praxis-Guide
by Matthias Horx
Wie sehen die Märkte der Zukunft aus? Und welche Chancen und Risiken bieten sich für Unternehmen? Matthias Horx, Jeanette Huber, Andreas Steinle und Eike Wenzel führen die Leser Schritt für Schritt an die Methoden der Trend- und Zukunftsforschung heran. Die Autoren beschreiben die wichtigsten Megatrends der Wirtschaft und zeigen, wie man aus der Trend- und Zukunftsforschung innovative Ideen generiert und somit neue Märkte schafft. Der Fokus ist dabei auf die Wechselwirkungen von technologischen, ökonomischen, sozialen und politischen Strömungen gerichtet.
Lernen, wie Trend- und Zukunftsforschung „funktioniert“
Zahlreiche Fallbeispiele und Checklisten helfen bei der direkten Umsetzung. Auf der dazugehörigen CD-Rom finden sich außerdem sämtliche Arbeitsvorlagen und Charts zur weiteren Verwendung in Präsentationen oder für die Teamarbeit – so wird das Buch zu einem Praxis-Guide und Arbeitsbuch.
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Il y a toujours une alternative -
by Ute Hélène von Reibnitz
Ce manuel de prospective propose la méthode des scénarios pour mieux gérer sa vie et pour relever les défis d’aujourd’hui et de demain. La prospective individuelle aide à découvrir les possibilités de l’être humain et à lui ouvrir des espaces quand il se croît dans une impasse. Trois personnages (une étudiante, un manager au milieu de sa vie et traversant une crise professionnelle et un entrepreneur proche de la retraite) accompagnent le lecteur dans ce voyage fascinant vers l’avenir.
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Die Eisenbahn der Zukunft
by Gisela Hürlimann
Wer generierte die Ideen für innovative technische Lösungen und für neue Bahnangebote bei den SBB der Nachkriegszeit? Welche Ideen konnten sich durchsetzen, weshalb und auf welche Weise? So lauten einige Kernfragen der vorliegenden Untersuchung, die sich als Beitrag zu einer «integrativen Unternehmensgeschichte» der SBB versteht und auch internationale Entwicklungen reflektiert.
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Archäologie der Zukunft
by Rainer Egloff, Matthias Michel und Gerd Folkers
Der Band «Archäologie der Zukunft» versammelt unterschiedliche Perspektiven auf Zukunftsvisionen der Vergangenheit und der Gegenwart. Dabei stehen Wissenschaft und Technik immer im Mittelpunkt – sei es als Gegenstand von Erörterungen zur Zeit, zum Utopischen, zum Altern und Veralten von Visionärem oder in Kommentaren und gestalterischen Reflexionen zu Sciencefiction-Filmen. Das Buch ist aber mehr: es ist eigenwillig, erinnert sich und betätigt sich als Orakel – es träumt, reflektiert und interveniert. Der wärmesensitiv bedruckte Buchumschlag gibt unterschiedliche Zeichenfolgen preis, je nachdem ob es in der Sonne liegt oder in den Händen eines Lesenden. Die zusätzlich erscheinende, limitierte und nummerierte Sonderedition verstärkt das Interaktionsspiel durch ein elektronisch unterstütztes Eigenleben mit Sensoren, Akku und Wärmeplatte ebenso subtil wie faszinierend.
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A Brief History of the Future
by Oona Strathern
How the ancient art of prediction has become today's science of futurism. With lots of fascinating detail and anecdotes, ranging from Delphi to Dawkins, including stories and speakers from the European Futurists Conference Lucerne.
Read a summary here.
To order a copy or read the introduction please go to: http://www.strathern.eu
The Future of China’s Economy – The Path to 2020
by Rohit Talwar, Global Futures and Foresight
Rohit Talwar has undertaken a major global business survey on the future of China's Economy in which over 700 respondents from 60 countries across five continents provided detailed responses. This represents the first global study of its kind on such a scale – providing rich quantitative and qualitative insights into how attitudes and ambitions for the China market are evolving across continents.
Read more about the survey here.
