Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
E-Scanning, Auto-Scanning, Open Source Scenarios and Futures Mash-Ups: Reviewing Emerging Futures Research Tools

Dr. Wendy Schultz will briefly review state of the art digital and networked solutions for environmental (horizon) scanning, and consider what the shift from print/analogue to multimedia/digital means in creating automated futures research tools, and immersive, participatory futures environments. She will finish by describing a new project for open-source, graphically rich scenario building.

Prof. John S. Ratcliffe
Futures Methods: Putting Them Into Action

Workshop 1

Hans Bandhold
Future-based Innovation and the MeWe-Generation

This Future Workshop consists of two integrated parts: A presentation of the "next generation", the MeWe Generation born in the 1980s, and the possible consequences for consumer industry, employers, politics and civil society. It will be based on surveys and studies on values conducted by Kairos Future during recent years.
An introduction of perspectives as well as specific tools that could be used to accelerate the innovation process, using consumer as well as
broader social trends as innovation source. The framework is drawn from Kairos Future's TAIDA-method presented in the book Scenario Planning - the link between future and strategy.

Workshop 2

Prof. Markku Wilenius

Creative Knowledge Capital as the Future Core Asset for Organisations

Creative Knowledge Capital is a new concept that has been recently developed in Finland Futures Research Centre, as a result of extensive research and development project with six major Finnish companies. The still ongoing project focuses on the development of foresight methods for mastering innovation and leadership processes at company level. Our results show that competitiveness requires a far deeper understanding of organisation-based innovativeness than that which is recognised today.In the workshop, we shall explore our concept and findings in discussive and hands-on spirit.

Download the presentation here (700kb).

Workshop 3

Stefan Holtel
Communication for the 21st Century: Analyzing WEB 2.0 Applications

Workshop 4

Prof. Barbara Adam
Futures Made, Mapped and Minded: An Exploration of the Futurist’s Toolkit for Action, Knowledge and Ethics

Public perception plays an important role in the acceptance of technological innovation. There are various studies on the risk perception of future technological innovations that provide valuable information for entrepreneurs, regulators and other decision-makers. However, these studies rely on the divergence between future technological development on the one hand and present preferences
and perceptions of the public on the other.
This workshop affords the opportunity to critically discuss this divergence, and provides conceptual ideas for constructing future risk perception in order to overcome this divergence. We illustrate
the conceptual ideas with the case of nanotechnology. The workshop takes a first step towards the foresight of people's risk perception as a
means of risk communication, innovation management, sustainable governance.

Download the presentation here (430kb).

Workshop 7

Dr. Kerstin Cuhls
Learning from National German Foresight Processes – Tools for Including Different Stakeholders

Workshop 8

Thierry Kneissler / Monika Herrmann
Future Screening and Innovations at PostFinance

PostFinance is one of the largest financial services providers in Switzerland with over 2 million customers and a total asset of CHF 47 billion. Innovation is a key element in its ambitious growth strategy. PostFinance was awarded “Best Innovator 2006” by AT Kearney and Bilanz. Innovation grows out of every employee’s inspiration in every business unit at PostFinance. The Future Screening initiative of the Corporate Development department is an important instrument to support innovations. It includes measures like planning future research projects, coordinating a network of Future Agents or emphasizing perspectives of the future in the strategic decision making of the executive board. At the European Futurists Conference Lucerne a futurology-based concept of strategic management will be presented and elaborated. This concept is based on innovative ability as a critical success factor provided by systematical exploration of possible future
developments. While focusing on a real case, the participants of the workshop will experience step by step how futurology can support innovative strategies successfully in an integral process.

Download the presentation here (1.4MB).

FutureManagementGroup (Pero Micic)
How to See More of the Future with a Practical Toolset

Kairos Future AB (Dr. Mats Lindgren / Hans Bandhold)
Future-Based Innovation & the MeWe-Generation

Shaping Tomorrow (Dr. Michael Jackson) / ROOS Büro für kulturelle Innovation
Profiting from Tomorrow by Anticipating the Future

Philips (Paul Gardien)
Strategic Foresight at Philips: Developing Future Value (for media only)

Ged Davis
Global Challenges and Futures Thinking

Penny Power
The Future of Social Network

Penny Power will talk about the future of networks and how this will impact individuals, culture and businesses, large and small. Penny is the
Founder of a Social Network for Business People. Founded in 1998, with in excess of 80,000 members in over 180 countries. Penny is concerned by the emergence of Social Networks, seeing the weakness of them if  they do not protect the member and provide sustainable value to the stakeholders. Ensuring the provider of the site understands its purpose is core to the success of this new methodology. Penny believes in the future of Social Networks as a way of empowering people, creating change and providing shareholder value, but only if managed with integrity and without greed.

Download the presentation here (730kb).

Stefan Bergheim
Global Growth Centres 2020

Forecasts for long-run economic growth are an important input into decisions in companies, governments and financial markets. However, there is a real scarcity of substantiated forecasts. Deutsche Bank Research has developed a unique framework that combines quantitative and qualitative elements: Formel-G. The model can be used as a tool to think about long-run growth and to derive forecasts for GDP growth until 2020. Asian economies are set to be the growth stars until 2020 based on favourable demographics, strong rises in human capital and a further opening to international trade.

Download the presentation here (300kb).

Lunch Break 

Paul Gardien
Doing it Differently: A Design Led Approach to Innovation

The future, and the future and innovation, in big companies, is too often about more of the same, despite living in an age that calls out for more appropriate and radical solutions. Part of the problem lies in the strong industrial heritage of an over "engineered" approach to innovation and risk management: a desire to impose a business "straitjacket" too early in the innovation process and to minimize the risks, stifles the truely new. An age that needs radical innovation needs a more radical approach to the process of innovation itself. Philips Design proposes a more flexible, inclusive, creative and sustainable approach to innovation and growth.

In 1998 Mibelle, the largest cosmetics manufacturer in small Switzerland, had more questions than answers about the future and saw more clouds than sun on the horizon. In a systematic process these questions were adressed and integrated into the strategic planning within Mibelle which led to 7 years of dynamic growth. It is shown how Mibelle "got started" and developed and implemented a future management system in 1999 which proved to be successful in the following years.

Download the presentation here (77kb).

Most companies have a lot of information regarding future trends at hand
which include strong indications about potential future risks and/or opportunities. Unfortunately many companies fail to act in time upon the available information. One reason for this passive behaviour is that management and employees cannot, are not ready or don’t want to see the potential consequences.
In order to make the crucial step from information to action companies  have to create a future friendly internal environment, which consists of employees with special competencies along with efficient processes and high quality future content. In his presentation Guenter Burzywoda gives an overview on T-Mobile International’s approach to addresses this challenge and prepare in a proactive way on the future.

Coffee Break 

Salon 1 Innovation and Futures Research
Paul Gardien, Sven Strunk, Günter Burzywoda

Chair: Johan Peter Paludan (Advisory Board), Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Salon 2 Web 2.0
Matt Locke, Penny Power, Markus Merz
Chair: Michael Jackson (Advisory Board), Shaping Tomorrow

Salon 3 Future of Health
Kevin Warwick, Walter Hehl, Matthias Horx
Chair: Andreas Heigl (Advisory Board), GlaxoSmithKline

Salon 4 Global Future
Stefan Bergheim, Pierre Alain Schieb, John Casti
Chair: Rohit Talwar (Advisory Board), Fast Future

In this presentation a look will be taken at how the use of implant technology is rapidly diminishing the effects of certain neural illnesses and distinctly increasing the range of abilities of those affected. An indication will be given of a number of problem areas in which such technology has already had a profound effect, a key element being the need for a clear interface linking the human brain directly with a computer. The main thrust will be an overview of Kevin's own research which has led to him receiving a neural implant which linked his nervous system bi-directionally with the internet.
A view will be taken as to the prospects for the future, both in the near term as a therapeutic device and in the long term as a form of enhancement, including the realistic potential, in the near future, for thought communication – thereby opening up tremendous commercial potential. Clearly though, an individual whose brain is part human - part machine can have abilities that far surpass those who remain with a human brain alone. Will such an individual exhibit different moral and ethical values to those of a human? If so, what effects might this have on society?

Dr. Walter Hehl
Global Outlook: Status and Trends in IT as Viewed by IBM Research

Matt Locke
Open Innovation at the BBC

As internet technologies are maturing and adoption levels are now in the majority, the landscape of innovation is changing. We are moving from a world of long-term R&D that was primarily located in research labs and academia, to a vast distributed network of “lead-users”, who innovate via collaborative social networks. Matt Locke will talk about how the BBC is responding to this new innovation landscape, and describe various pilot projects including Backstage and Innovation Labs.
Download the presentation here (1.8MB).

Futurism is surrounded by bizarre misunderstandings and wild expectations. While a lot of futurists today deny their ability to predict, a
media-influenced public and ever more demanding customers ask exactly for this: precise, spectacular forecasts about everything. For the futurist this causes an unsolvable dilemma: If he does his job responsibly, he is out of business, because nobody is fascinated. If he “talks in tongues“, he will be listened to, but at the price of becoming a clown and entertainer.
This speech analyses the different roles of predictors, gurus, forecasters and cool hunters with a lot of funny and serious examples. Main thesis: The business of forecasting is shifting from “Prediction“ to “Changing MINDSETS“. From Scenario-Projects to continuous Awareness Systems, which can be implemented in politics, business and personal life.

Prof. Bjorn Lomborg
The Copenhagen Consensus Priorities